Stephen Follows: Decoding the World of Cinema Through Data

This is part one of a two-part deep dive into how the film industry is changing. This one focuses on the adverse effects, with the follow-up next week focusing on the positives. So strap in, this is not going to be a cheery read.

The film industry has always been risky, but in recent years, those levels of risk (and the deleterious attempts to mitigate them) have made it much worse.

The underlying mechanics have shifted in ways that make it harder to finance films, harder to market them, and harder to predict what success even looks like.

In this article, I go through eleven structural changes reshaping the business, including:

1. Cinema-going may never return to pre-pandemic levels.

2. Cinema trips are shifting from routine to a treat.

3. Consumers have been trained to expect short windows.

4. The business model has become harder to see.

5. Corporate games mean instability for everyone.

6. International markets are no longer a dependable safety net.

7. Generative AI has moved from theory to real threat.

8. Marketing has become harder, faster, and less predictable.

9. Market instability is leading to creative cowardice.

10. VFX remains one of the most fragile parts of the film supply chain.

11. Other forms of filmed entertainment are still growing.

For Stephen's FULL Substack Part One article fleshing out in detail and data the above changes, click HERE

Here is Stephen's companion piece, focusing on all the good things about the recent shifts:

PART TWO

How the film industry's new shape is an amazing opportunity for filmmakers

The market has stabilised enough to act on. Here are 15 shifts over the past five years that make it easier to plan, build momentum, and maintain control as a filmmaker.

The film industry has spent the past five years operating in a fog. The pandemic caused (and exacerbated) a number of massive shifts, all of which created huge caveats and asterisks to any plans.

As we enter 2026, the fog is thinning. Not gone, and we still can’t predict the future, but we are getting more reliable signals that feel reasonable to build long-term strategic decisions on.

I’m going to go through 15 ways the film industry has changed over the past five years, and these are opportunities waiting to be taken advantage of.

1. We finally know what the market is

2. Audiences are tiring of IP and rewarding original stories

3. Production value isn’t chained to budget anymore

4. Soft money is growing and targeting indie productions

5. Language is no longer a barrier

6. Text-based AIs make small teams disproportionately powerful

7. Visual AI makes it easier to communicate creative ideas

8. The new distribution landscape rewards niche content

9. Audience-building is within reach of all filmmakers

10. Audiences want authenticity

11. Marketing materials are cheap enough to prototype properly

12. The job ladder is less rigid than it used to be

13. The creator economy can fuel the film economy

14. Global collaboration is cheap enough to be the default

15. Micro-studios can exist as real businesses